Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.602788 0.697964 0.800148 0.917653 1.048669 1.189883 1.353213
2025-02-16 0.417535 0.535739 0.672916 0.842433 1.044758 1.276937 1.561861
2025-02-23 0.284689 0.406807 0.560307 0.764015 1.023525 1.339173 1.747806
2025-03-02 0.189563 0.304358 0.461367 0.685445 0.989867 1.381367 1.914142
2025-03-09 0.135962 0.245338 0.407812 0.656143 1.013921 1.497399 2.184470
2025-03-16 0.096027 0.196201 0.358302 0.623653 1.028373 1.601513 2.449345
2025-03-23 0.074290 0.170597 0.339146 0.632325 1.101965 1.793761 2.851571
2025-03-30 0.051591 0.135993 0.297616 0.598343 1.106262 1.886225 3.120551
2025-04-06 0.037264 0.112734 0.270409 0.582862 1.136620 2.019056 3.458209
2025-04-13 0.026275 0.092247 0.243233 0.562101 1.154667 2.133312 3.775682
2025-04-20 0.020197 0.081181 0.232400 0.569553 1.221287 2.329534 4.232758
2025-04-27 0.014752 0.069042 0.215931 0.562716 1.260899 2.483842 4.633140
2025-05-04 0.010628 0.058811 0.201812 0.559850 1.310730 2.665033 5.099468
2025-05-11 0.007655 0.050492 0.190025 0.559965 1.366574 2.861860 5.606480
2025-05-18 0.005000 0.040936 0.171499 0.540892 1.381793 2.988008 6.003426
2025-05-25 0.002955 0.031554 0.149501 0.508313 1.364367 3.052714 6.298671
2025-06-01 0.001977 0.026700 0.140008 0.505392 1.409796 3.238097 6.817537
2025-06-08 0.001226 0.021885 0.128364 0.493955 1.434620 3.385612 7.277225
2025-06-15 0.000907 0.020045 0.127422 0.512680 1.530755 3.679441 8.019691
2025-06-22 0.000499 0.015858 0.114360 0.492407 1.532244 3.784341 8.418458
2025-06-29 0.000289 0.013152 0.106280 0.485426 1.564711 3.953907 8.946967
2025-07-06 0.000150 0.010581 0.097028 0.472108 1.579278 4.086756 9.411758
2025-07-13 0.000094 0.009427 0.094763 0.482094 1.654651 4.352212 10.143982